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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 32

Philadelphia Eagles 16 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 6-C.Sturgis 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.17 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model