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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 6

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:51) 6-C.Sturgis 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model