4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to CAR 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn. PENALTY on PHI-53-N.Goode, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 13.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model