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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:59) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to CAR 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model