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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 6-C.Sturgis 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model