Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 94

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Detroit Lions 17

(1:03) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke right end ran ob in End Zone for -6 yards, SAFETY. Penalty on MIN-19-A.Thielen, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.10 EP
52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 94, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.85 EP