Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 28 – Detroit Lions 17

(8:52) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to DET 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 15-G.Tate to DET 34 for 9 yards (19-A.Thielen).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.32 EP
57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model