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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 72

Detroit Lions 17 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to MIN 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.99 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model