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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 25 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 3-B.Walsh 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP