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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 89

Detroit Lions 17 – Minnesota Vikings 25

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to MIN 39, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 47 for 8 yards (95-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -3.38 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 89, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model