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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 17 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 22 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 3-B.Walsh 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model