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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 72

Detroit Lions 17 – Minnesota Vikings 22

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to MIN 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP