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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 52

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 17 for 7 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.78 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model