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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 79

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(2:17) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Landry to MIA 17 for -8 yards (52-B.Peters; 35-E.Pleasant).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 36, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model