Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 83

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

(5:20) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to MIA 48, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-J.Landry to HOU 45 for 7 yards (46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.96 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model