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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 83

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(7:04) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 33 yards to HOU 50, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-45-J.Prosch.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.27 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 83, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model