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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:03) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to HOU 10, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-28-Bo.McCain.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.36 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP