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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 9

Houston Texans 0 – Miami Dolphins 35

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short left to 41-J.Grimes (28-Bo.McCain).

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.21 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 9, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model