Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 26 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 2-D.Butler punt is BLOCKED by 27-A.Jackson, Center-82-M.Leach, RECOVERED by BAL-43-R.Mostert at ARI 5. 43-R.Mostert to ARI 1 for 4 yards (26-R.Johnson). Penalty on ARI-82-M.Leach, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.63 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model