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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(14:24) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to ARI 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson. BAL-25-T.Walker was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP