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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 7-C.Catanzaro 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.48 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model