Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(:05) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Golden MUFFS catch, recovered by ARI-28-J.Bethel at ARI 39. 28-J.Bethel to ARI 39 for no gain (50-A.McClellan).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.07 EP
41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 72, worth -2.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model