Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 65

Tennessee Titans 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(5:15) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to ATL 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.33 EP
52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model