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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:33) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.Bryant 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.29 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model