Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(3:35) (Shotgun) 7-Z.Mettenberger pass incomplete short right to 15-J.Hunter.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

What Happened

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.36 EP
52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -2.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model