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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(14:05) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.68 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model