4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to ATL 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-48-B.Brinkley.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model