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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:25) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to TEN 39, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-D.McCluster.

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model