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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 54

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:38) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to NYJ 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP