4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Crowder (23-D.McDougle).

The Three Options

GO +3.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +0.37 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model