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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 76

Washington Commanders 13 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(13:55) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYJ 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 49 for 22 yards (94-P.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model