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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 21

New York Jets 10 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 2-N.Folk 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.90 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP