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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 36

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 3-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP