Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 60

New York Jets 10 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 4-R.Quigley punts 49 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder. Penalty on WAS-54-M.Foster, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.77 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model