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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 79

Washington Commanders 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYJ 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 37 for 7 yards (53-J.Jeffcoat).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model