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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 3

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 39-D.Woodhead (23-D.Randall) [56-J.Peppers].

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.89 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model