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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 5-M.Scifres punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model