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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 5-M.Scifres punts 34 yards to GB 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 33-M.Hyde to GB 31 for 16 yards (48-N.Dzubnar). LAC-5-M.Scifres was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model