4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 8-T.Masthay punts 50 yards to LAC 21, Center-61-B.Goode. 12-J.Jones to LAC 16 for -5 yards (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP