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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 8-T.Masthay punts 28 yards to LAC 12, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model