Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 51

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 19-B.Anger punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.67 EP

KICK -1.88 EP

16% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
84% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model