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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 49

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 9-S.Lechler punts 39 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.32 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.35 EP
KICK -2.46 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.37 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model