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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 53

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 19-B.Anger punts 36 yards to HOU 17, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 12-K.Mumphery.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 13% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 87% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model