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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 10

Denver Broncos 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model