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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 57

Denver Broncos 23 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -0.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model