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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 77

Denver Broncos 23 – Cleveland Browns 23

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 37 yards to CLE 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -1.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model