Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 20 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to DEN 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 30 for 8 yards (35-D.Jones). DEN-52-C.Nelson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.63 EP
58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model