Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 7 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 58 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 28 for 11 yards (33-J.Poyer). DEN-52-C.Nelson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
57% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model