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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 79

Denver Broncos 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CLE 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 48 for 20 yards (30-D.Bruton).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 36, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model