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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(7:57) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model